CHINESE JOURNAL OF ENERGETIC MATERIALS
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火工品可靠度的经典估计与Bayes估计
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周美林(1965-),男,在职博士,副研究员,现从事火工品研制及其可靠性研究。

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Bayes Estimation and Classical Reliability Estimation Methods of Initiating Devices
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    摘要:

    分析了GJB376-87《火工品可靠性评估方法》中计数法的保守性,提出了火工品可靠度新的计数评估方法,并应用统计理论和数学方法进行了理论证明,同时介绍了采用Bayes方法及在火工品可靠度估计中的应用,并进行了分析和讨论。

    Abstract:

    The conservation of GO,NO-GO Method in GJB 376-87 "Assessment Method of Reliability for Initiating Devices" and the Bayes method of reliability for initiating devices were discussed in the paper. A new GO,NO-GO Method was designed to estimate reliability of initiating devices with less sample-amount. It was deduced using statistical theory and mathematical methods. The Bayes, the new proposed and classical estimation methods were compared experimentally. The results show that the former two exhibit better reliability estimation for initiating devices than the classical estimation, and the new method requires less sample-amount than the other two.

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周美林,蔡瑞娇,韩敦信.火工品可靠度的经典估计与Bayes估计[J].含能材料, 2005, 13(2):94-98.
ZHOU Mei-lin, CAI Rui-jiao, HAN Dun-xin. Bayes Estimation and Classical Reliability Estimation Methods of Initiating Devices[J]. Chinese Journal of Energetic Materials, 2005, 13(2):94-98.

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  • 收稿日期: 2004-06-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2011-11-03
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