CHINESE JOURNAL OF ENERGETIC MATERIALS
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基于混合先验分布的弹射弹Bayes可靠性估计
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北京理工大学,北京理工大学,北京理工大学

作者简介:

张天飞(1962-),男,博士,从事航空武器装备系统工程研究。

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ZHOU Yuan quan. Reliability Assessment[M]. Beijing: Press of Science,1990.
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Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing Institue of Technology,Beijing Institute of Technology

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    摘要:

    建立了一种综合利用单元试验数据和系统试验数据的弹射弹Bayes可靠性评估方法。该方法通过建立基于继承因子的混合Beta先验分布,结合弹射弹试验数据确定后验分布,最后通过后验分布推断弹射弹可靠性。采用该方法及GJB376-1987方法和传统贝叶斯方法,对某型弹射弹可靠性进行了评估。结果表明,在置信水平0.90情况下,三种方法可靠度评估结果分别为0.9922,0.978, 0.996。表明本文方法是有效的,在相同的现场试验情况下,评估结果比经典统计方法更合理。

    Abstract:

    A Bayesian reliability assessment method for cartridge of ejector was proposed. The reliability information of whole cartridge and its subsystems was comprehensively utilized in this method. Firstly, inheritance factor was determined, then mixed Beta distribution was established based on the reliability information of whole cartridge and its subsystems, lastly, the posterior distribution was used to assess system reliability. With new method and GJB376-1987 method and the traditional Bayesian method, the reliability of a cartridge ejector was respectively evaluated to reach 0.9922, 0.978, 0.996 under the confidence level 0.90. The result shows that the new method is effective to evaluate the reliability of cartridge of ejector.

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张天飞,董海平,蔡瑞娇,等.基于混合先验分布的弹射弹Bayes可靠性估计[J].含能材料, 2012, 20(1):113-116.
ZHANG Tian-fei, DONG Hai-ping, CAI Rui-jiao, et al. ZHOU Yuan quan. Reliability Assessment[M]. Beijing: Press of Science,1990.[J]. Chinese Journal of Energetic Materials, 2012, 20(1):113-116.

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  • 收稿日期: 2011-03-04
  • 最后修改日期: 2011-04-26
  • 录用日期: 2011-05-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2012-02-23
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