CHINESE JOURNAL OF ENERGETIC MATERIALS
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火工序列能量传输界面可靠性评估方法
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1.北京理工大学;2.陕西应用物理化学研究所

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Reliability Evaluation Method of Energy Transfer Interface of Pyrotechnic Sequence
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1.Beijing Institute of Technology;2.Shaanxi Institute of Applied Physical Chemistry

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    摘要:

    针对火工序列能量传输界面的可靠性评估问题,提出了一种基于信仰统计推断法的可靠性评估方法。该方法充分考虑了能量传输界面数据的随机性特征,通过构建性能参数的概率分布模型,将先验知识与试验数据有机结合,实现了对界面可靠性的精确评估和随机性量化。研究首先建立了火工序列能量传输界面的可靠性模型;在此基础上设计了基于信仰统计推断的可靠性评估算法框架;为验证所提方法的有效性,分别与分位数修正法、蒙特卡罗方法的评估结果进行对比分析。结果表明,在样本量为3到70时,基于信仰统计推断法的评估结果与真实值的偏差最小,且具有良好的收敛性和稳定性。特别是在样本量小于等于10情况下,该方法表现出更接近置信度的覆盖率和良好的稳定性,有效克服了传统方法对样本量的依赖问题,为火工序列能量传输界面的可靠性评估提供了新的方法。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the reliability evaluation of the energy transmission interface of pyrotechnic sequence, a reliability evaluation method based on fiducial inference method was proposed. This method fully considers the randomness characteristics of the energy transfer interface data. By constructing the probability distribution model of the performance parameters, the prior knowledge is organically combined with the test data, and the accurate evaluation and randomness quantification of the interface reliability are realized. Firstly, the reliability model of the energy transfer interface of pyrotechnic sequence was established. On this basis, the reliability evaluation algorithm framework based on fiducial inference was designed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, the evaluation results of the quantile correction method and the Monte Carlo method were compared and analyzed. The results show that when the sample size is 3 to 70, the deviation between the evaluation results based on the fiducial inference method and the true value is the smallest, and it has good convergence and stability. Especially when the sample size is less than or equal to 10, this method shows significant advantages, effectively overcomes the dependence of traditional methods on sample size, and provides a new method for the reliability evaluation of the energy transfer interface of pyrotechnic sequences.

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引用本文

曾晓云,穆慧娜,秦国圣,等. 火工序列能量传输界面可靠性评估方法[J]. 含能材料,DOI:10.11943/CJEM2025043.

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  • 收稿日期: 2025-03-13
  • 最后修改日期: 2025-06-14
  • 录用日期: 2025-06-17
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